Predictions

Subject: “Predictions”

Don’t know if all the facts check out but as predictions go, it is
pretty interesting and a little bit scary. It is indeed a very
interesting world we live in.

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide.  Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they
went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next
5-10 years and, most people won’t see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures
on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.
The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore’s law.
​ ​So as with all exponential technologies, it was a
disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became
mainstream in only a few short years.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential
Age.

2. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10
years.

3. Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now
the biggest taxi company in the world.

4. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they
don’t own any properties.

5. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world This year, a computer beat the best Go player
in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

6. In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM’s
Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.

So if you study law, _stop immediately_. There will be 90% less
lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain.

6A. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more
accurate than human nurses.

7. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize
faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more
intelligent than humans.

8. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear
for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and can be productive while driving.

The very young children of _today _will never get a driver’s license
and will never own a car.

8A. It will change the cities because we will need 90-95% fewer cars
for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now
have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million mi (10 million km).
That will save a million lives worldwide each year.

8B. Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car
companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,
while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary
approach and build a computer on wheels.

8C. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified
of Tesla.

9. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance
business model will disappear.

10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you
commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.

11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be
less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean:
Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but
you can now see the burgeoning impact.

13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to
prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply
cannot continue – technology will take care of that strategy.

14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25
cents).
We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce
drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as
much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There
are companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder”
from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina
scan, your blood sample, and you breath into it.

16. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any
disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years, everyone on this planet
will have access to world-class medical analysis, nearly for free.
Goodbye, self-serving medical practitioners and establishments.

17. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
​ ​All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing
shoes.

18. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote
airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need
for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

19. At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoe at home.

19A. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey
office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will
be 3D printed.

20.
B
​​usiness opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go
in, first ask yourself:
​ ​”In the future, do I think we will have that?”
​ ​ and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

20A. If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.

20B. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There
will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough
_new_ jobs in such a short time. This will require a rethink on wealth
distribution.

21. Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the
future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of
their field instead of working all day in their fields.

22. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish
produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced
veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for
cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore.

23. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the
market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled
as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the
idea of eating insects).

24. There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which
mood you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your
facial expressions if you are lying.
Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they’re
telling the truth and when they’re not – it will ultimately compel all
politicians to be truthful (a truly unique & novel occurrence).

25. BY 2020 (or sooner – some might suggest this is happening now)
WHAT A UNIVERSITY STUDENT LEARNS IN THE FIRST YEAR OF A THREE YEAR
DEGREE – WILL BE IRRELEVANT AND REDUNDANT BY THE TIME THE THIRD YEAR
IS COMPLETED!

Subject: “Predictions”

Don’t know if all the facts check out but as predictions go, it is
pretty interesting and a little bit scary. It is indeed a very
interesting world we live in.

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they
went bankrupt.

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next
5-10 years and, most people won’t see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures
on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.
The first ones only had 10,000 pixels but followed Moore’s law.
​ ​So as with all exponential technologies, it was a
disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became
mainstream in only a few short years.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential
Age.

2. Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10
years.

3. Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now
the biggest taxi company in the world.

4. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they
don’t own any properties.

5. Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world This year, a computer beat the best Go player
in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

6. In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM’s
Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.

So if you study law, _stop immediately_. There will be 90% less
lawyers in the future, only omniscient specialists will remain.

6A. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more
accurate than human nurses.

7. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize
faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more
intelligent than humans.

8. Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear
for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be
disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car
with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to
your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the
driven distance and can be productive while driving.

The very young children of _today _will never get a driver’s license
and will never own a car.

8A. It will change the cities because we will need 90-95% fewer cars
for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now
have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous
driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million mi (10 million km).
That will save a million lives worldwide each year.

8B. Most car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car
companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,
while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary
approach and build a computer on wheels.

8C. Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified
of Tesla.

9. Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance
business model will disappear.

10. Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you
commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.

11. Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be
less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity.

12. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean:
Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but
you can now see the burgeoning impact.

13. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to
prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply
cannot continue – technology will take care of that strategy.

14. With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25
cents).
We don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce
drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as
much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

15. Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There
are companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder”
from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina
scan, your blood sample, and you breath into it.

16. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any
disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years, everyone on this planet
will have access to world-class medical analysis, nearly for free.
Goodbye, self-serving medical practitioners and establishments.

17. 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000 to $400 within 10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
​ ​All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing
shoes.

18. Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote
airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need
for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

19. At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect
shoe at home.

19A. In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey
office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will
be 3D printed.

20.
B
​​usiness opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go
in, first ask yourself:
​ ​”In the future, do I think we will have that?”
​ ​ and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

20A. If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. Any idea
designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the
21st century.

20B. Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There
will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough
_new_ jobs in such a short time. This will require a rethink on wealth
distribution.

21. Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the
future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of
their field instead of working all day in their fields.

22. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish
produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced
veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for
cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore.

23. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the
market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled
as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the
idea of eating insects).

24. There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which
mood you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your
facial expressions if you are lying.
Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they’re
telling the truth and when they’re not – it will ultimately compel all
politicians to be truthful (a truly unique & novel occurrence).

25. BY 2020 (or sooner – some might suggest this is happening now)
WHAT A UNIVERSITY STUDENT LEARNS IN THE FIRST YEAR OF A THREE YEAR
DEGREE – WILL BE IRRELEVANT AND REDUNDANT BY THE TIME THE THIRD YEAR
IS COMPLETED!

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